The mediating role of demarketing in the relationship between perceived quality and smoking cessation in Algeria. Part I.

This study focuses on the role of perceived tobacco quality in promoting smoking cessation in Algeria through demarketing strategies, using behavioral economics as a theoretical framework. It aims to analyze the relationship between perceived tobacco quality and smoking cessation, while examining the mediating effects of product and pricing strategies and promotion and distribution strategies. The sample included 1,473 smokers from all 58 Algerian provinces, with data collected via an electronic questionnaire based on statistically validated scales. Results revealed that perceived tobacco quality had a direct effect on smoking cessation (β = 0.250), while M1 and M2 collectively explained 37.5% of the relationship through an indirect effect of 0.150. A sequential mediation pathway was identified, demonstrating how structural interventions (M1) such as taxation and pricing policies create the foundation for the success of behavioral campaigns (M2). The findings emphasized the importance of integrating economic measures (e.g., taxes) with psychological tactics (e.g., loss-framing messages) to enhance intervention effectiveness, alongside cultural adaptation (e.g., aligning campaigns with religious values or family health priorities) to ensure contextual relevance in Algeria. This provides a practical framework for governments and health organizations to design innovative, culturally tailored anti-smoking strategies in resource-constrained settings.

1 Introduction

Tobacco use remains one of the most pressing public health challenges globally, responsible for over 8 million deaths annually, according to the World Health Organization, (WHO 2024) In Algeria, smoking prevalence has reached alarming levels, with approximately 27% of adults reporting regular tobacco use, and 56% of men aged 15-65 classified as daily smokers. Youth smoking rates are also rising, with 14% of adolescents aged 13-15 experimenting with tobacco, driven by factors such as cultural normalization, peer pressure, and aggressive marketing by the tobacco industry. The economic burden is equally staggering, with smoking-related healthcare costs exceeding $1.2 billion annually in Algeria alone (GSTHR 2022).
Traditional anti-smoking campaigns, which rely on fear-based messaging or direct prohibitions, have shown limited efficacy in changing behavior. These approaches often trigger psychological reactance a defensive response to perceived threats to autonomy while failing to address the deep-rooted cognitive biases that sustain addiction (Manyiwa and Brennan 2012). Meanwhile, the tobacco industry continues to exploit these biases through sophisticated marketing tactics, such as glamorizing smoking in media and leveraging social norms to target vulnerable populations.
This study explores demarketing as an innovative strategy to combat smoking addiction by reframing anti-smoking communication through the lens of behavioral economics and social marketing. As Pizło and Pizło (2026) emphasize, social marketing applies commercial marketing concepts to influence target audiences for the benefit of society, which perfectly aligns with redirecting marketing techniques to discourage harmful consumption. Unlike conventional approaches, demarketing adopts the persuasive techniques of commercial marketing but redirects them to discourage consumption, by leveraging principles such as loss aversion (emphasizing what smokers stand to lose) and social norms; this approach aims to reshape perceptions of tobacco’s „quality“ and desirability. For instance, campaigns might use satirical cigarette packaging or ironic slogans to subvert tobacco branding, making smoking appear unappealing rather than glamorous.
Given the ongoing challenges of smoking addiction in Algeria, this study examines the role of demarketing as a mediating variable in the relationship between perceived quality and smoking cessation. The research questions were formulated as follows: (Q1) How do demarketing tactics (e.g., satirical campaigns, loss-framing messaging) reshape perceptions of tobacco as undesirable? (Q2) Does perceived tobacco quality significantly predict smoking cessation intentions? (Q3) Does exposure to demarketing strategies significantly mediate the link between perceived tobacco quality and cessation outcomes? (Q4) Does the total effect (direct + indirect) of perceived tobacco quality on smoking cessation, mediated by demarketing strategies, show statistical significance?
In the Algerian context, where cultural and socioeconomic barriers hinder smoking cessation, demarketing offers a culturally tailored and psychologically nuanced solution. By analyzing its mediating role between perceived product qualities and smoking cessation, this study seeks to provide actionable insights for policymakers and public health practitioners. Ultimately, it challenges the status quo of tobacco control by advocating for interventions that align with human behavior rather than opposing it head-on.
This article is organized as follows: Section 2 reviews the theoretical foundations of demarketing and its integration with behavioral economics, while developing hypotheses that link perceived product quality, demarketing strategies, and smoking cessation outcomes. Section 3 details the research methodology, including data collection from Algerian smokers through surveys and behavioral experiments, alongside analytical techniques such as regression analysis and structural equation modeling to assess the mediating role of demarketing. Section 4 presents empirical findings, highlighting how demarketing interventions (e.g., satirical campaigns, loss-framing messaging) influence perceptions of tobacco quality and cessation intentions. Section 5 discusses the implications of these findings for public health policy in Algeria and similar contexts, emphasizing the strategic application of behavioral economics principles to counter tobacco industry tactics. Finally, Section 6 summarizes the study’s conclusions, acknowledges limitations (e.g., cultural specificity of data, short-term behavioral tracking), and proposes future research directions, such as longitudinal studies on demarketing efficacy and cross-cultural comparisons.

2 Theoretical background

2.1 Demarketing (concept and motives)

The concept of demarketing emerged in the 1970s in response to rising demand for certain products when organizations struggled to meet supply; it refers to a strategy aimed at reducing or curbing demand for a specific commodity or product (Halah 2017). As Štrach (2019) notes, demarketing were originally pronounced by Kotler and Levy in 1971, and on the surface, it functions as an active communication strategy designed to discourage consumption. Describes demarketing as a strategic approach designed to reduce or limit consumer demand to align it with supply capabilities. This method can be applied broadly across the entire market or targeted at specific consumer segments. It serves as a tactical response for marketers to implement short-term demand rationalization strategies when long-term efforts to manage demand prove ineffective. Kotler and Keller (2016) conceptualizes demarketing as a strategic component of marketing aimed at discouraging consumer demand either temporarily or permanently for specific products or services. This approach targets general consumer populations or specific market segments to reduce consumption or usage, particularly in contexts where demand exceeds supply or conflicts with organizational or societal goals.
Demarketing is employed for strategic and contextual purposes, primarily to manage demand imbalances or address societal challenges. According to Pasquier and Villeneuve (2018) this approach is utilized when organizations aim to reduce consumer demand either temporarily or permanently to align it with supply capabilities, particularly when production constraints or resource limitations prevent meeting rising demand. Similarly Kumo (2023) highlights its role in situations where long-term demand management strategies fail, prompting marketers to adopt short-term rationalization tactics. Additionally, demarketing is applied to discourage harmful consumption patterns (e.g., smoking or excessive sugar intake) by leveraging psychological reactance or cognitive biases, such as loss aversion or social norms (Haugtvedt, Herr and Kardes 2008). It also serves regulatory or ethical purposes, enabling businesses to comply with legal restrictions (e.g., tobacco advertising bans) or mitigate public backlash by subtly reducing product visibility. Finally, it targets niche market segments to avoid overextending resources or focusing on high-value customers, ensuring operational efficiency and sustainability.

2.2 Demarketing strategies

2.2.1 Product strategy

Product strategy focuses on altering a product’s attributes or packaging to diminish its attractiveness to consumers. This approach employs techniques such as reducing product quality (e.g., introducing tasteless cigarettes), incorporating shock-value designs (e.g., graphic health warnings on cigarette packs), or creating parody products with sarcastic slogans (e.g., these cigarettes ruin your life). These methods aim to evoke negative associations or diminish perceived value, thereby discouraging consumption. For instance, a 2025 pilot study in Algeria demonstrated the efficacy of satirical cigarette packaging featuring ironic messages, which increased participants’ intentions to quit smoking by 22% compared to traditional health warnings (Makhloufi and Ben Ghadfa 2025). By leveraging design and messaging to subvert product appeal, this strategy effectively aligns with behavioral economics principles like loss aversion and psychological reactance.

2.2.2 Pricing strategy

Pricing strategy aims to reduce consumer demand by increasing the cost of harmful products or eliminating financial incentives that encourage their purchase. This approach includes techniques such as tax hikes on tobacco, alcohol, or sugary beverages to make them less affordable; eliminating discounts or promotional offers that lower perceived costs; and implementing symbolic penalties, such as charging fees for single-use plastic bags to deter environmentally harmful behavior. These methods leverage price sensitivity and loss aversion to influence decision-making. For example, in 2021, Algeria increased cigarette taxes by 30%, which contributed to a measurable decline in tobacco consumption among youth, particularly in price-sensitive demographics (GSTHR 2022). By aligning economic disincentives with public health goals, pricing strategies effectively curtail demand while generating revenue for social programs.

2.2.3 Promotion strategy

Promotion strategy utilizes unconventional or emotionally charged messaging to deter consumer demand by reshaping perceptions and leveraging psychological biases. This approach includes satirical social media campaigns that employ humor or irony to critique harmful products (e.g., viral challenges mocking smoking culture), fear-based messaging that emphasizes severe long-term consequences (e.g., visuals of cancerous lungs or financial ruin), and behavioral nudges that frame decisions around losses rather than gains (e.g., What could you buy instead of cigarettes?). These techniques exploit cognitive biases like loss aversion and psychological reactance to subvert product appeal. For instance, Algeria’s „The price you pay“ campaign used caricatures of diseased lungs on cigarette packaging to evoke visceral reactions, significantly raising public awareness about smoking risks (WHO 2024) By blending creativity with behavioral insights, promotion strategies disrupt traditional advertising narratives and foster anti-consumption attitudes.

2.2.4 Distribution strategy

Distribution strategy focuses on limiting product availability through logistical or regulatory measures to reduce consumption. This approach includes restricting sales locations (e.g., banning tobacco sales near schools or public spaces), controlling sales hours (e.g., limiting alcohol or cigarette availability to specific times), and channel manipulation (e.g., replacing harmful products with healthier alternatives in retail environments). These tactics aim to disrupt accessibility, making products less convenient or socially normalized. For instance, France implemented a ban on flavored cigarettes in small retailers to curb their appeal among youth, aligning with behavioral economics principles like choice architecture by reducing exposure to tempting options (Thaler and Sunstein 2008). By reshaping the physical or regulatory environment in which consumers make decisions, distribution strategies effectively deter demand while minimizing direct confrontation with users.

2.3 Types of demarketing

The concept of demarketing was originally outlined by Levy and Kotler 1971, who identified four distinct types based on organizational objectives. These strategies are designed to manage demand imbalances, reshape market dynamics, or address societal challenges.

2.3.1 General demarketing/General demand reduction

General demarketing (demarketing) is a strategic approach employed by organizations or governments to reduce overall consumer demand for a product or service when it becomes excessively high, often due to overwhelming popularity or supply constraints. This strategy targets the entire market, aiming to curb consumption across all demographics and contexts. It is particularly relevant in two scenarios: first, when a product achieves rapid popularity (e.g., tobacco or sugary beverages), creating demand that outpaces production capacity or conflicts with public health goals; and second, when companies face resource limitations or seek to phase out a product while encouraging adoption of alternatives. For instance, governments may impose steep taxes on cigarettes (e.g., Algeria’s 30% tax hike in 2021) to deter smoking while preserving public health (GSTHR 2022). Similarly, businesses might redirect consumers toward substitutes through awareness campaigns or pricing adjustments, ensuring brand loyalty persists despite reduced demand (Kotler and Keller 2016).

2.3.2 Selective demarketing/Targeted demand reduction

This strategy is employed when an organization aims to reduce or limit demand within specific market segments or among certain types of consumers. These segments are typically less profitable compared to others for the product. The organization resorts to this form of demarketing to: Eliminate undesirable customers in order to minimize their demands; When the organization has no option but to accept or continue sales (e.g., due to legal or operational constraints); Focus on a specific market segment to target customers who are most in need of the product (Farquhar 2013).

2.3.3 Ostensible demarketing/Perceived scarcity strategy

This strategy involves an organization pretending to discourage demand for a product or service while secretly aiming to increase consumer interest and drive sales, the core principle lies in leveraging psychological reactance and scarcity bias the human tendency to desire things more when they appear difficult to obtain or restricted. By creating an artificial perception of limited availability or exclusivity, companies make their offerings seem more valuable, thereby stimulating demand paradoxically. For example, luxury brands often release limited edition products while publicly stating they do not wish to overproduce, even though this scarcity is designed to generate hype. Similarly, airlines may advertise last-minute deals with urgent language (e.g., „Only 3 seats left!“) to create a false sense of urgency. This approach makes consumers perceive the product as more desirable because it appears inaccessible to others. The concept hinges on the idea that people value what they believe is scarce or denied to others. By simulating refusal or limiting access, organizations exploit this cognitive bias to enhance perceived value and attract high-priority customers, while effective for boosting demand in competitive markets, this tactic risks backlash if consumers perceive it as manipulative (Cialdini 2009).

2.3.4 Unintentional demarketing/Unplanned demand suppression

Unintentional demarketing occurs when an organization’s efforts to increase demand or promote a product inadvertently drive customers away, resulting in reduced interest or sales. This unintended consequence often stems from negative publicity, poor customer experiences, or misaligned marketing strategies that backfire. For instance, a company launching an aggressive advertising campaign might overwhelm consumers, triggering psychological reactance (resistance to perceived pressure) and alienating its audience. Similarly, a product recall or scandal (e.g., a food brand facing contamination allegations) can lead to spontaneous consumer boycotts, even if the issue was unintentional. This phenomenon highlights the risks of unplanned demand suppression, where organizational missteps such as tone-deaf messaging, quality failures or ethical breaches undermine trust and credibility. For example, a luxury brand accused of green washing may lose eco-conscious customers, while a tech company’s data privacy breach could deter users despite efforts to reassure them. Behavioral economics explains this through loss aversion, where consumers prioritize avoiding negative outcomes (e.g., reputational harm from supporting a flawed product) over potential gains (Kirchner 2013).

END OF PART I.

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Kľúčové slová/Key words

demarketing, perceived quality, smoking cessation, mediating
demarketing, vnímaná kvalita, odvykanie od fajčenia, sprostredkovateľské faktory

JEL klasifikácia/JEL Classification

M31, D12, Z18, C51

Résumé

Sprostredkovateľská úloha demarketingu vo vzťahu medzi vnímanou kvalitou a odvykaním od fajčenia v Alžírsku. Časť I.
Táto štúdia sa zameriava na úlohu vnímanej kvality tabaku pri podpore odvykania od fajčenia v Alžírsku prostredníctvom demarketingových stratégií, pričom ako teoretický rámec využíva behaviorálnu ekonómiu. Jej cieľom je analyzovať vzťah medzi vnímanou kvalitou tabaku a odvykaním od fajčenia a zároveň preskúmať sprostredkovateľské efekty produktových a cenových stratégií, ako aj propagačných a distribučných stratégií. Vzorka zahŕňala 1 473 fajčiarov zo všetkých 58 alžírskych provincií, pričom údaje boli zbierané prostredníctvom elektronického dotazníka založeného na štatisticky overených škálach. Výsledky ukázali, že vnímaná kvalita tabaku mala priamy vplyv na odvykanie od fajčenia (β = 0,250), zatiaľ čo M1 a M2 spoločne vysvetľovali 37,5% tohto vzťahu prostredníctvom nepriameho vplyvu vo veľkosti 0,150. Bola identifikovaná sekvenčná mediačná dráha, ktorá demonštruje, ako štrukturálne intervencie (M1), ako sú daňové a cenové politiky, vytvárajú základ pre úspech behaviorálnych kampaní (M2). Zistenia zdôraznili dôležitosť integrácie ekonomických opatrení (napr. daní) s psychologickými taktikami (napr. posolstvami zameranými na straty) s cieľom zvýšiť účinnosť intervencie, spolu s kultúrnou adaptáciou (napr. zosúladením kampaní s náboženskými hodnotami alebo prioritami v oblasti rodinného zdravia), aby sa zabezpečila kontextová relevantnosť v Alžírsku. To poskytuje praktický rámec pre vlády a zdravotné organizácie na navrhovanie inovatívnych, kultúrne prispôsobených protifajčiarskych stratégií v prostredí s obmedzenými zdrojmi.

Recenzované/Reviewed

2. April 2026 / 3. June 2026